World War 3 “Inevitable”

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reacts during a ballistic rocket test-fire through a precision control guidance system in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un reacts during a ballistic rocket test-fire through a precision control guidance system in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency.

[ IF YOU DON’T WANT TO READ THIS LONG, THEN YOU COULD FIND THE AUDIO AT THE END OF THIS BLOG ]

North Korea conducting numerous ballistic missile and nuclear weapon tests is alarming the world for another dangerous and catastrophic war. These missiles possess a huge threat to the global peace and mankind especially to neighbor countries like South Korea and Japan which could be the easy targets. North Korea has been claiming that they are in the final stages of developing an Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile which could hit parts of the US mainland. The propaganda of North Korea is to sell the world that they’re a great threat to the mankind although the actual power that they possess is yet not clear. However, their failure rate of launching ballistic missiles have been very high which is an indication that claims made by North Korea can’t be believed.

Not only this, United States has also been opposing Russia’s policy in the Syrian conflict and have been engaged in a proxy war with them. US support the rebels and want a change in regime in Syria, unlike Russia which supports the Assad’s government. Situations could worsen if Russia violates any International law like they did at the time of annexing Crimea from the Ukraine.

United States’ possible attack on North Korea

Hydrogen Bomb claims

Last year in January, North Korea carried out a nuclear test at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site and claims the detonation of its first ever Hydrogen Bomb which is far more powerful and destructive than atomic weapons based on fission reaction. This detonation caused an earthquake of 5.1 on the Richter scale. The World leaders condemned it and United Nations General Assembly urged strong action to be taken against Pyongyang. However, experts questioned the authenticity and pointed out that the magnitude of the earthquake was similar to that of the one which occurred after the nuclear test in 2013. China, in spite of being North Korea’s only ally, opposed this nuclear test. North Korea called it as “self-defense against the US” which possesses numerous weapons of mass destruction.

Ballistic Missile Tests

North Korea tried to launch ballistic missile last month in April, which however turned out to be embarrassing for them as it blew up few seconds after the launch and US cyber warriors are allegedly the reason behind this. North Korean attempts of launching have failed 88% of the time till date. North Korea has been firing missiles and has launched 12 so far during the 9 tests in 2017. In the past three weeks, they have attempted three tests and they received opposition from world leaders all across. Their latest missile attempt landed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone which is around 280 miles of its east coast which is a place where ships operate and was extremely dangerous for Japan. The missile was believed to be a Scud-class Ballistic missile which has been originally developed by the Soviet Union during the cold war.

A ballistic rocket is test-fired through a precision control guidance system in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency
A ballistic rocket is test-fired through a precision control guidance system in this undated photo released by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency.

Deployment by the United States in South Korea

Ballistic missile tests are a threat not only for the Korean Peninsula but also to the International community. Since South Korea and Japan are its closest neighbors and also US closest allies, US has ensured that it will resolve the matter of North Korea either peacefully or through any means. The US President Donald Trump talked to Chinese President Xi Jinping regarding resolving the North Korean issue and denuclearizing them as they possess a huge threat to the whole world. Xi has asked the United States to use peaceful means to resolve the issue after The U.S. Navy, sent the third Aircraft Carrier of the Carrier Strike Group 11 to the Western Pacific.

The United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) has already shown concerns over the issue of North Korea and have passed a resolution to end the ballistic missile testing and nuclear program “in a complete, verifiable, and irreversible manner”. North Korea is also developing a long-range missile that will have the capability to hit the US mainland. From United States’s perspective, it’s very evident why they are much more concerned and are trying to make pressure on Pyongyang by their recent deployment.

United States has also deployed its nuclear submarine USS Michigan in the South Korean waters. North Korea warned the United States about destroying the submarine on their propaganda website Urminzokkiri. The United States has already started the drills with the South Korean and Japanese Army which reflects their plan to launch an attack if they don’t peacefully stop all the tests immediately. South Korean media reported that the famous US Navy SEAL team 6 has been training in South Korea and is participating in drills there. With the rising differences in the relations with North Korea, US has started all preparations to attack the North Korea and end the regime of Kim Jong-un. The situation indicates at a strike that may be launched in North Korea soon.

USS Michigan is the second Ohio-class nuclear-powered guided missile submarine in the United States Navy.
USS Michigan, the second Ohio class Nuclear powered guided missile submarine has been deployed in South Korean waters to make pressure on North Korea.

Anonymous warns for the 3rd World War

The hacker group Anonymous has also feared the World War III and released a video asking people to get prepared. North Korea’s closest ally China has also asked its citizens living there to come back indicating a high possibility of a nuclear war. Although China is against North Korea this time, they won’t be in favor of a nuclear attack near the region. The video says that this isn’t going to be a proxy war like the one in Iraq or Yemen, it’s going to be a real war with ground troops with superpowers participating; will be brutal and will cause the greatest damage environmentally and economically till date.

US tested the Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile Minuteman III maybe to send a strong message to Pyongyang. They have 450 such missiles each capable of traveling 8000 miles. Although the US military has denied all connections of the launch with the tensions with North Korea. Also, the Japanese had already told their citizens to be prepared for a nuclear war.

US-Russian Relations

Syrian Conflict

The Syrian conflict has made the two superpowers of the world against each other when it comes to involving the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad in resolving the Syrian issue. Russia, being a very old ally has recognized the Government of Syria and supported politically, through military and financial aid. Later, they also supported through direct military involvement with air strikes against the rebels and jihadist, which was the first time Russia participated in a military conflict directly outside the border of the former Soviet Union. Although, reports suggest that US-backed rebel groups were also hit in those air strikes. Russia has focused on bombing areas controlled by the rebels, leaving the main cause of terror – “Islamic State” safe. 

Assad's army has been supported by Russia, who has been one of the oldest ally of Syria.
The Russians unlike the Americans support the Government of Bashar Al-Assad and provide military and financial support.

The United States altogether has a different stand. They support the local rebels and have opposed the Government of Bashar Al-Assad accusing him of gassing his own people, responsible for chemical attacks and committing atrocities on common people. However, Syria denies these allegations. As far as US intentions are concerned, they don’t want the present government of Assad to continue and want to establish a new administration once the conflict comes to an end. The US supports the Kurds who have pushed out the IS and established the control over the large portion in the northern region.

The conflict which was initially for fighting the Islamic State has turned out to be a proxy war between US and Russia. The US once again is planning to attack the Assad’s army which will result in a direct fight with Russia which can be one of the other reasons for the 3rd World War.

Russia’s possible annexation of Baltic Countries

Defense experts of the US fear that Russia may invade the Baltic countries Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania similar to what they did with the Crimean Peninsula of Ukraine. Although, I believe that Russia will rethink before taking any such step because all three of these countries are part of NATO (the North Atlantic Treaty Organization) and invading them means inviting military action from the NATO. If this happens, this will turn out to be a violent war. In a situation like this, Russia will prove to be weaker against the NATO which has the US, UK, and France as its members.

Contrary to this, if the US does not respond (which in reality has a less chance of occurrence) then it will hardly take a few days for Russia to annex these countries. Russia is already recovering from economic crisis and at this stage and can’t afford a fight with NATO which is destined to create more problem for them economically.

International Relations

It’s very clear that if a war of that scale happens, India and Pakistan won’t be on the same side. Both of them maintain a diplomatic relation both with US and Russia. The other case may be the United States and Russia on the same side against North Korea and China defending the North Korea. In this case, if Pakistan joins the China side, then it will be a problem for them as India won’t be at that side and India may attack them soon. If China defends its own territory and North Korea, it won’t be able to provide financial or military support to Pakistan. In that case, Pakistan won’t be able to defend itself and may not be able to recover the economic loss from the war. Pakistan should be ready for a catastrophic result if they don’t change their policy towards India.

Looking at the Global Politics and International Relations scenario now especially between the two superpowers, it seems that a war is inevitable. The United States is already on the verge of war with North Korea which further increase the possibility. Although what will be the battle ground and who will join which side in the war will completely depend upon the circumstances and the reasons for the war.

AUDIO

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